News summary
Macroscopic stable growth and real estate policies are jointly promoted, and commodity markets are expected to benefit directly in the second and third quarters. Rebar and hot coil production and inventory data are cautious, with the demand side playing the key; iron ore supply and demand are average, but prices may fluctuate stronger with the ferrous metal sector. Risk warning: Macro policies may fall short of expectations.
Newsletter text
[Macroeconomic policies help commodity markets] China implemented in the second and third quarterslivepokernearmeThe policies of stabilizing growth and stabilizing real estate are expected to stimulate price recovery and the repair of nominal economic indicators, which will directly benefit commodity markets such as rebar and hot coils.
While macroeconomic policy support, the effectiveness of real estate market regulation policies will closely affect market expectations. Rebar production continues to grow and reached 235 per cent this weeklivepokernearme.740,000 tons, inventory reduced to 784livepokernearme.100,000 tons, showing the smoothness of the inventory process. However, there is still uncertainty about the extent of demand recovery, limitinglivepokernearmeThere is room for increase in rebar prices.
[Rebar futures prices may remain highly volatile] Although the rebar market expectations are relatively optimistic, the spot market remains cautious, and the rise in futures prices may cause the market to continue to operate highly volatile. Market analysts recommend that investors hold more than one weekly thread 10 contracts and take a wait-and-see attitude in portfolio strategy.
[Supply and demand in the hot coil market are booming, but the improvement in demand is unclear] The hot coil market shows a pattern of both supply and demand, with weekly output slightly increasing to 3.2536 million tons, while total inventories decreasing slightly. Despite this, there are no obvious signs of improvement in demand and there are potential risks to exports, so the spot market is more cautious.
[Hot coil futures prices may fluctuate stronger with rebar] Market expectations are optimistic in the hot coil market, while actual industries remain cautious. The premium in hot coil futures prices may prompt the market to follow the trend of rebar and operate more violently. Investors can maintain a long-term approach on unilateral strategies and adopt a wait-and-see approach on portfolio strategies.
[Iron ore market may be affected by macroeconomic expectations] Against the background of global iron ore shipments and the increase in the arrival of Chinese imported ore to Hong Kong, the iron ore market may operate strongly with the volatile ferrous metal sector. However, the increase in domestic scrap consumption and the slowdown in the pace of blast furnace production may have an impact on the market.
[Iron ore market strategy suggests wait-and-see] Currently, the iron ore market is positively affected by macroeconomic expectations, but the fundamentals of the meso-level are relatively weak. Investors should maintain a wait-and-see attitude when it comes to unilateral strategies, and wait-and-see attitude when it comes to portfolio strategies.