Zhitong Financial APP learned that SDIC Securities released a research report that believes that the pharmaceutical industry has a recovery in hospitals and an acceleration in going abroad. The operations of core companies are expected to improve in the second half of the year. Internally, the rectification effect in the pharmaceutical field has been remarkable, and the sales of end-end drugs have been improved.lotsaslotsThe short-term impact of the medical device sector is expected to gradually weaken in 2024H2. In addition, the performance of the medical device sector has shown signs of improving month-on-month, and industry inventories are experiencing digestion and are tending to clear out. Externally, innovative drugs have achieved fruitful results in going abroad, and the scale of China's medical device exports continues to grow.
Improvement in hospital sales of chemical drugs:
The rectification effect in the pharmaceutical field is significant, and the short-term impact on terminal drug sales is expected to gradually weaken in 2024H2; traditional pharmaceutical companies continue to strengthen research and development, optimistic about the rapid increase in sales of high-clinical value varieties, focusing on innovative anesthetics and innovative ophthalmology varieties
Improvement in in-hospital sales of devices:
The performance of the medical device sector has shown signs of improving month-on-month. The industry's inventories have experienced digestion and are tending to clear out. Indicators such as accounts receivable and contract liabilities of the sector have shown marginal improvement. An inflection point has emerged in the policy area. The marginal impact of anti-corruption has weakened + favorable policies have catalyzed recovery in the hospital.
Improvement in sales in traditional Chinese medicine hospitals:
As the impact of medical anti-corruption weakens, looking forward to the second half of 2024, the sales of proprietary Chinese medicines in hospitals are expected to improve significantly. The transformation of academic marketing +OTC in hospitals has become a market consensus. The sales expense rate is expected to continue to decline. The centralized procurement of proprietary Chinese medicines is expected to achieve price for volume.
Innovative drugs go to sea:
Innovative drugs have achieved fruitful results in going abroad. Currently, many products have been approved by the FDA, and many products have potential for overseas marketing; currently, domestic companies mainly adopt the license out going abroad model, and it is worth looking forward to going abroad independently in the future
Equipment going to sea:
The scale of China's medical device exports continues to grow, with the highest proportion of medical consumables and medical equipment exports; the equipment sector has accelerated to go abroad, becoming a systemic beta driving new growth. The proportion of overseas equipment business revenue will gradually increase from 2019 to 2023.
Overseas supply chain repair:
Affected by the global epidemic in the early stage, there were inventory backlogs in many overseas medical device segments. At present, the inventory level of overseas supply chains has returned to a positive state. Orders are expected to show a quarterly improvement trend in the future, and the performance of relevant companies is expected to pick up quarterly.
In vitro diagnosis going to sea:
The overseas IVD market has large space and different market characteristics. Tactically, IVD going to sea needs to be adapted to local conditions; focusing on the accessible market, large-scale immune testing and other tracks have a large expansion space; the successful sailing experience of leading IVD companies includes track advantages, product advantages, business layout
CXO& API:
The supply-demand relationship is positively and marginally optimized. The export volume of 2024H2 APIs and intermediates is expected to improve. The patent period of many chronic disease varieties is about to expire, which is expected to bring significant increases to the industry; the high base effect of major orders has subsided and emerging businesses have been actively boosted., CXO's fundamentals are improving
Risk warning:
Overseas geopolitical risks; centralized procurement and expansion risks; R & D failure risks; investment and financing risks; risks that relevant assumptions and forecasts fall short of expectations
