Newsletter summary
Domestic corn inventory is on the high side compared with the same period last year.StraightflushcardsThe channel pressure is still there.StraightflushcardsCorn futures remained low and volatile. Under the background of pig production capacity, the feed demand has declined steadily, and the demand for deep processing starch has rebounded. Corn imports increased year-on-year, grain imports increased, but wheat high yield expectations are uncertain.
Text of news flash
[domestic corn supply tightens and futures prices show a rebound]
With the gradual consumption of domestic corn, its inventory has declined. According to data analysis, corn stocks in four ports in northern China decreased by 11% for the first time compared with the previous week.Straightflushcards. 60,000 tons, and the stock of corn in Guangdong Port has also increased. Although the supply side has eased somewhat, the surplus grain is more than expected, and the market supply remains loose.
[the upside-down price difference between domestic corn and Northeast China reflects loose supply]
Under the sentiment of the scarcity of surplus grain and the hesitation of traders, corn prices have shown a trend of stability and strength in the near future. Specifically, the market price of second-class corn in Weifang, Shandong Province and the second-class closing price of Jinzhou Port (600190) rose to 2300 yuan / ton and 2410 yuan / ton respectively, and the price difference between Shandong and Northeast China is upside down.
[the demand for pig feed is not as expected, which is not conducive to the rise in corn prices]
At the end of the first quarter of this year, the stock of fertile sows in the country decreased significantly, by about 9%, reflecting the de-production of the pig industry. This development may dampen the demand for corn as a feed raw material and have a negative impact on corn prices.
[the demand in the field of deep processing has a limited impact on corn prices]
Although the rising temperature has led to an increase in demand for starch sugar and promoted the destocking of corn starch, although the inventory of starch products has declined for two consecutive weeks since May 17, it is still 160000 tons higher than the same period last year. Starch enterprises entering the seasonal maintenance period may gradually reduce their demand for corn.
[rising grain imports put potential pressure on the corn market]
China's corn imports in April were 1.18 million tons, up 17% from a year earlier.Straightflushcards.6%, while total grain imports have increased sharply compared with the same period last year, which may have a crowding effect on the demand for domestic corn. The rising amount of imported grain may put pressure on the domestic corn market.
[wheat as a substitute may affect the corn market]
The fluctuation of wheat price and the decrease of market supply may make wheat an important feed substitute, which may affect the demand of corn market to some extent. It is reported that the narrowing of the price gap between wheat and corn is amplifying the feeding substitution effect of wheat.
[despite the pressure on the market, there is limited room for corn prices to decline]
Although the corn market is currently under pressure from oversupply and increased imports of grain, futures have fallen to near 2015 levels, and from a valuation point of view, the downside of corn is relatively limited. Under the potential stimulus of policy, the price hub is likely to rise gradually.
[the market is divided on the future trend of corn prices]
Based on the above information, investors need to consider multiple factors when paying attention to the corn market. Although the market supply has eased somewhat, but the demand is difficult to find, the future trend of the corn market is still full of uncertainty.